Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 2.197985 2.562274 2.966114 3.446730 4.002913 4.626105 5.377220
2026-01-11 1.614309 2.096443 2.688494 3.467828 4.465684 5.699577 7.340609
2026-01-18 1.246822 1.769971 2.468724 3.467626 4.856408 6.716434 9.394785
2026-01-25 0.994704 1.522912 2.280443 3.441441 5.171209 7.647919 11.458591
2026-02-01 0.772135 1.263794 2.014536 3.237735 5.173999 8.112717 12.902655
2026-02-08 0.627875 1.090953 1.838764 3.125423 5.274663 8.709205 14.599685
2026-02-15 0.533417 0.978540 1.734779 3.101696 5.498487 9.510421 16.712923
2026-02-22 0.480998 0.927198 1.721129 3.221949 5.971835 10.771922 19.752275
2026-03-01 0.416941 0.842505 1.633688 3.194204 6.174843 11.587608 22.115256
2026-03-08 0.360573 0.761950 1.539861 3.137117 6.310042 12.290674 24.355528
2026-03-15 0.319984 0.705347 1.482070 3.138321 6.551877 13.214487 27.122118
2026-03-22 0.308207 0.706241 1.537838 3.373506 7.286251 15.169891 32.145942
2026-03-29 0.278882 0.666017 1.506370 3.430846 7.681915 16.540531 36.253602
2026-04-05 0.252324 0.627697 1.473819 3.482916 8.079217 17.978657 40.728431
2026-04-12 0.226162 0.585553 1.426052 3.493549 8.387715 19.272399 45.080317
2026-04-19 0.201380 0.542118 1.368106 3.470911 8.616366 20.421249 49.270176
2026-04-26 0.169726 0.475243 1.243118 3.266727 8.385948 20.502412 51.022828
2026-05-03 0.147465 0.428753 1.160579 3.153845 8.358646 21.048038 53.943508
2026-05-10 0.132379 0.398958 1.115702 3.130049 8.550455 22.141576 58.345847
2026-05-17 0.125215 0.390251 1.125058 3.251422 9.135679 24.279718 65.652039
2026-05-24 0.112881 0.364018 1.082326 3.223448 9.318768 25.424892 70.561082
2026-05-31 0.100947 0.336684 1.031979 3.165858 9.412099 26.349531 75.016290
2026-06-07 0.092297 0.317967 1.003492 3.167075 9.671392 27.750240 80.951104